Nonfarm payrolls surged by 916k in March, exceeding already optimistic market expectations of a substantial 652k increase by a wide margin. On top of that, the previous month’s gain got a positive revision from 379k to 468k. Unemployment rate dropped to 6.0% from 6.2%, matching forecasts. Average hourly earnings fell by 0.1% instead of rising at the same rate as economists had predicted. The previous month’s increase got a revision from 0.2% to 0.3%. (Event A on the chart.)

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Initial jobless claims were at 719k last week, seasonally adjusted, up from the previous week’s revised level of 658k (684k before the revision). Experts were expecting a smaller figure of 678k. (Event A on the chart.)

Markit manufacturing PMI rose to 59.1 in March from 58.6 in February according to the final estimate, close to market expectations and the preliminary estimate. (Event B on the chart.)

ISM manufacturing PMI rose to 64.7% in March from 60.8% in February. Specialists had predicted a much smaller increase to 61.5%. (Event C on the chart.)

Construction spending fell by 0.8% in February, matching forecasts. The January increase got a negative revision from 1.7% to 1.2%. (Event C on the chart.)

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ADP employment rose by 517k in March, missing the median forecast of 552k. The previous month’s increase got a positive revision from 117k to 176k. (Event A on the chart.)

Chicago PMI climbed to 66.3 in March from 59.5 in February. The actual value was not only significantly above the consensus forecast of 61.2 but also the highest since July 2018. (Event B on the chart.)

Pending home sales sank by 10.6% in February, much more than experts had predicted — 3.1%. The previous month’s decrease got a revision from 2.8% to 2.4%. (Event C on the chart.)

US crude oil inventories fell by 0.9 million barrels last week, more than experts had forecast — 1.3 million barrels, but remained about 6% above the five-year average for this time of year. The stockpiles increased by 1.9 million barrels the week before. Total motor gasoline inventories dropped by 1.7 million barrels but were about 4% above the five-year average. (Event D on the chart.)

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S&P/Case-Shiller home price index rose by 11.1% in January, year-on-year, more than in the previous month (10.2%) but less than analysts had predicted (11.4%). Month-on-month, the index gained by 0.9%. (Event A on the chart.)

Consumer confidence jumped to 109.7 in March from 90.4 in February, much more than analysts had predicted — 96.9. (Event A on the chart.)

On Friday, a couple of reports were released (not shown on the chart.):

Both personal income and spending dropped in February. Personal income fell by 7.1%, less than experts had predicted — 7.3%. Personal spending decreased by 1.0%, more than was forecast — 0.8%. The previous month’s gains got positive revisions from 10.0% to 10.1% for income and from 2.4% to 3.4%. Core PCE inflation was at 0.1%, matching expectations. The previous month’s value got a negative revision from 0.3% to 0.2%.

Michigan Sentiment Index climbed to 84.9 in March from 76.8 in February according to the revised estimate. That is compared with the median forecast of 83.6 and the preliminary figure of 83.0.

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Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

GBP/USD

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

USD/JPY

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

AUD/USD

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

USD/CAD

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

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USD GDP rose by 4.3% in Q4 2020 according to the third and final estimate. Markets were expecting the same 4.1% reading as in the preliminary estimate. The indicator surged by 33.4% in Q3. (Event A on the chart.)

Initial jobless claims were at 684k last week, seasonally adjusted, down from the previous week’s revised level of 781k (770k before the revision). Markets were expecting a smaller decrease to 727k. (Event A on the chart.)

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Durable goods orders fell by 1.1% in February instead of rising by 0.7% as experts had predicted. The indicator increased by 3.5% in the previous month. (Event A on the chart.)

Markit manufacturing PMI edged up to 59.0 in March from 58.6 in February according to the flash report but still missed the median forecast of 59.6. Markit services PMI rose to 60.0 from 59.8, matching expectations. (Event B on the chart.)

US crude oil inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels last week, slightly more than analysts had predicted, and were about 6% above the five-year average for this time of year. The stockpiles increased by 2.4 million barrels the week before. Total motor gasoline inventories rose by 0.2 million barrels but were about 3% below the five-year average. (Event C on the chart.)

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US current account logged a deficit of $188.5 billion in Q4 2020, up from $180.9 billion in Q3. The actual value was in line with analysts’ forecasts. (Event A on the chart.)

Richmond Fed manufacturing index rose from 14 in February to 17 in March. The consensus forecast had promised just a marginal increase to 15. (Event B on the chart.)

New home sales were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 775k in February, missing the consensus forecast of 872k. The previous month’s figure got a positive revision from 923k to 948k. (Event B on the chart.)

Yesterday, a report on existing home sales was released, showing that they were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.22 million in February, down from the previous month’s revised level of 6.66 million (6.69 million before the revision). The market consensus had promised a better reading of 6.55 million. (Not shown on the chart.)

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Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

GBP/USD

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

USD/JPY

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

AUD/USD

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

USD/CAD

Floor pivot points

Woodie’s pivot points

Camarilla pivot points

Tom Demark’s pivot points

Fibonacci retracement levels

If you have any questions or comments on this technical analysis, please feel free to reply below.

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index surged from 23.1 in February to 51.8 in March. That was a total surprise to experts who were expecting a small decline to 22.5. (Event A on the chart.)

Initial jobless claims were at 770k last week, seasonally adjusted, up from the previous week’s revised level of 725k (revised up from 712k). This time specialists were wrong with their forecasts too, predicting a decrease to 704k. (Event A on the chart.)

Leading indicators rose by 0.2% in February, missing the analysts’ consensus estimate of a 0.3% increase. The index rose by 0.5% in the preceding month. (Event B on the chart.)

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