While I don’t agree with the methodologies employed or probabilities of impending economic weakness as depicted by the following two models, I think the results of these models should be monitored.

Please note that each of these models is updated regularly, and the results of these – as well as other recession models – can fluctuate significantly.

The first is the “Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator” from the New York Federal Reserve.  I wrote a post concerning this measure on March 1, 2010, titled “The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator.”

Currently (last updated April 4, 2026 using data through March 2026) this “Yield Curve” model shows a 18.7985% probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.  For comparison purposes, it showed a 20.7272% probability through February 2026, and a chart going back to 1960 is seen at the “Probability Of U.S. Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread.” (pdf)

The second model is from Marcelle Chauvet and Jeremy Piger.  This model is described on the St. Louis Federal Reserve site (FRED) as follows:

Smoothed recession probabilities for the United States are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to four monthly coincident variables: non-farm payroll employment, the index of industrial production, real personal income excluding transfer payments, and real manufacturing and trade sales. This model was originally developed in Chauvet, M., “An Economic Characterization of Business Cycle Dynamics with Factor Structure and Regime Switching,” International Economic Review, 1998, 39, 969-996. (http://faculty.ucr.edu/~chauvet/ier.pdf)

Additional details and explanations can be seen on the “U.S. Recession Probabilities” page.

This model, last updated on April 1, 2026 currently shows a .48% probability using data through February 2026.

Here is the FRED chart:

Data Source:  Piger, Jeremy Max and Chauvet, Marcelle, Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities [RECPROUSM156N], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, accessed April 10, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/RECPROUSM156N

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The two models featured above can be compared against measures seen in recent posts.  For instance, as seen in the January 18, 2026 post titled “The January 2026 Wall Street Journal Economic Forecast Survey“ economists surveyed averaged a 27% probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months.

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6818.80 as this post is written

The post Recession Probability Models – April 2026 appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

There are many ways to view this measure, both on an absolute as well as relative basis.

One relative measure is viewing Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP.  I feel that this metric is important for a variety of reasons.  As well, the measure is important to a variety of parties, including investors, businesses, and government policy makers.

As one can see from the long-term chart below (updated through the fourth quarter), (After Tax) Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP is still at levels that can be seen as historically high.  While there are many reasons as to why this is so, from a going-forward standpoint I think it is important to recognize both that such a notable condition exists, as well as contemplate and/or plan for such factors and conditions that would come about if (and in my opinion “when”) a more historically “normal” ratio of Corporate Profits as a Percentage of GDP occurs.  This topic can be very complex in nature, and depends upon myriad factors.  In my opinion it deserves far greater recognition.

(click on chart to enlarge image)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; accessed April 9, 2026

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6786.40 as this post is written

The post Corporate Profits As A Percentage Of GDP appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

Of course, there are many ways to adjust and depict overall Corporate Profits.  For reference purposes, here is a chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) showing the Corporate Profits After Tax (without IVA and CCAdj) (last updated April 9, 2026 with a value of $3,792.207 Billion SAAR):

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Here is the Corporate Profits After Tax measure shown on a Percentage Change from a Year Ago perspective (value of 2.8%):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Corporate Profits After Tax [CP]; U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis; accessed April 9, 2026; https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CP

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I post various indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6777.49 as this post is written

The post 4th Quarter 2025 Corporate Profits appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

Also of ongoing immense importance is the existence of various immensely large asset bubbles, a subject of which I have extensively written.  While all of these asset bubbles are wildly pernicious and will have profound adverse future implications, hazards presented by the bond market bubble are especially notable.

Predicting the specific timing and extent of a stock market crash is always difficult, and the immense complexity of today’s economic situation makes such a prediction even more challenging. With that being said, my analyses continue to indicate that a near-term exceedingly large (from an ultra long-term perspective) stock market crash – that would also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets – will occur. [note: the “next crash” and its aftermath has paramount significance and implications, as discussed in the post of January 6, 2012 titled “The Next Crash And Its Significance“ and various subsequent posts in the “Economic Depression” category]

As reference, below is a daily chart since 2008 of the S&P500 (through April 7, 2026 with a last price of 6616.85), depicted on a LOG scale, indicating both the 50dma and 200dma as well as price labels:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart courtesy of StockCharts.com; chart creation and annotation by the author)

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The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6616.85 as this post is written

The post Building Financial Danger – April 8, 2026 Update appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

Along these lines, one of the measures showing disconcerting trends is that of hourly earnings.

While the concept of hourly earnings can be defined and measured in a variety of ways, below are a few charts that I believe broadly illustrate problematic trends.

The first chart depicts Average Hourly Earnings Of All Employees: Total Private (FRED series CES0500000003)(current value = $37.38):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 4-3-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees:  Total Private [CES0500000003] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 3, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CES0500000003

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This next chart depicts this same measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 4-3-26)

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There are slightly different measures available from a longer-term perspective. Pictured below is another measure, the Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees – Total Private (FRED series AHETPI)(current value = $32.07):

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 4-3-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees:  Total Private [AHETPI] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics;  accessed April 3, 2026: 
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/AHETPI

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Pictured below is this AHETPI measure on a “Percentage Change From A Year Ago” basis.   While not totally surprising, I find the decline from 2009 and subsequent trend to be disconcerting:

(click on chart to enlarge image)(chart last updated 4-3-26)

I will continue to actively monitor these trends, especially given the post-2009 dynamics.

_________

I post various economic indicators and indices because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with what they depict or imply.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6582.69 as this post is written

The post Average Hourly Earnings Trends appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

Of course, there are many other employment charts that can be displayed as well.

For reference purposes, below are the U-3 and U-6 Unemployment Rate charts from a long-term historical perspective.  Both charts are from the St. Louis Fed site.  The U-3 measure is what is commonly referred to as the official unemployment rate; whereas the U-6 rate is officially (per Bureau of Labor Statistics) defined as:

Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

Of note, many economic observers use the U-6 rate as a (closer) proxy of the actual unemployment rate rather than that depicted by the U-3 measure.

Here is the U-3 chart, currently showing a 4.3% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilian Unemployment Rate [UNRATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 3, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UNRATE

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Here is the U-6 chart, currently showing a 8.0% unemployment rate:

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons  [U6RATE] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 3, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/U6RATE

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6582.69 as this post is written

The post U-3 And U-6 Unemployment Rate Long-Term Charts As Of April 3, 2026 appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

However, even if one chooses to look at the official statistics, the following charts provide an interesting (and disconcerting) long-term perspective of certain aspects of the officially-stated unemployment (and, in the third chart, employment) situation.

The three charts below are from the St. Louis Fed site.  Here is the Median Duration of Unemployment (current value = 11.5 weeks):

(click on charts to enlarge images)(charts updated as of 4-3-26)

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Median Duration of Unemployment [UEMPMED] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 3, 2026:  http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMPMED

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Here is the chart for Unemployed 27 Weeks and Over (current value = 1.821 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: Civilians Unemployed for 27 Weeks and Over [UEMP27OV] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 3, 2026: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/UEMP27OV

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Here is the chart for Total Nonfarm Payroll (current value = 158.637 million):

Data Source: FRED, Federal Reserve Economic Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: All Employees: Total Nonfarm [PAYEMS] ; U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; accessed April 3, 2026:  https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/PAYEMS

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Our unemployment problem is severe.  The underlying dynamics of the current – and especially future – unemployment situation remain exceedingly worrisome.  These dynamics are numerous and complex, and greatly lack recognition and understanding.

My commentary regarding unemployment is generally found in the “Unemployment” category.  This commentary includes the page titled “U.S. Unemployment Trends,” which discusses various problematical issues concerning the present and future employment situation.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6582.69 as this post is written

The post 3 Critical Unemployment Charts – April 2026 appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

The following three charts illustrate various technical analysis aspects of the U.S. Dollar, as depicted by the U.S. Dollar Index.

First, a look at the monthly U.S. Dollar from 1983.  This clearly shows a long-term weakness, with the blue line showing technical support until 2007, and the red line representing a (past) trendline:

(charts courtesy of StockCharts.com; annotations by the author)

(click on charts to enlarge images)

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Next, another chart, this one focused on the daily U.S. Dollar since 2000 on a LOG scale.  The red line represents a (past) trendline.  The gray dotted line is the 200-day M.A. (moving average):

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Lastly, a chart of the Dollar on a daily LOG scale.  There is possible technical support depicted by the dashed light blue line:

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I will continue providing updates on this U.S. Dollar situation regularly as it deserves very close monitoring…

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6528.52 as this post is written

The post U.S. Dollar Decline – April 1, 2026 Update appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

However, there are various indications – many of which have been discussed on this site – that this very widely-held consensus is in many ways incorrect.  There are many exceedingly problematical financial conditions that have existed prior to 2020 and continue to exist.  As well, numerous economic dynamics continue to be exceedingly worrisome and many economic indicators portray facets of weak growth or outright decline.

Of paramount importance is the resulting level of risk and the future economic implications.

From an “all things considered” standpoint, I continue to believe the overall level of risk remains at a fantastic level – one that is far greater than that experienced at any time in the history of the United States.

Cumulatively, these highly problematical conditions will lead to future upheaval.  The extent of the resolution of these problematical conditions will determine the ongoing viability of the financial system and economy as well as the resultant quality of living.

As I have previously written in “The U.S. Economic Situation” updates:

My analyses continues to indicate that the growing level of financial danger will lead to the next stock market crash that will also involve (as seen in 2008) various other markets as well.  Key attributes of this next crash is its outsized magnitude (when viewed from an ultra-long term historical perspective) and the resulting economic impact.  This next financial crash is of tremendous concern, as my analyses indicate it will lead to a Super Depression – i.e. an economy characterized by deeply embedded, highly complex, and difficult-to-solve problems.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6528.52 as this post is written

The post Problems Within The U.S. Economic Situation – April 1, 2026 appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.

In the CFO Survey press release, I found the following to be the most notable excerpts – although I don’t necessarily agree with them:

The outlook for the U.S. economy improved among financial decision-makers in the first quarter of 2026, according to The CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. Despite concerns about tariff policy and uncertainty, expectations for U.S. GDP growth and business revenue growth over the next year remained solid. The survey, which included 473 respondents, was fielded from Feb. 17 to March 5.

Real GDP over the next four quarters is expected to be 2.1% on a “weighted mean” basis and 2.0% on a “weighted median” basis.

The CFO Survey contains an Optimism Index chart, with the blue line showing U.S. Optimism (with regard to the economy) at 61.7, as seen below:

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It should be interesting to see how well the CFOs predict business and economic conditions going forward.   I discussed past various aspects of this, and the importance of these predictions, in the July 9, 2010 post titled “The Business Environment”.

(past posts on CEO and CFO surveys can be found under the “CFO and CEO Confidence” tag)

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I post various economic forecasts because I believe they should be carefully monitored.  However, as those familiar with this site are aware, I do not necessarily agree with many of the consensus estimates and much of the commentary in these forecast surveys.

_____

The Special Note summarizes my overall thoughts about our economic situation

SPX at 6595.61 as this post is written

The post The CFO Survey First Quarter 2026 – Notable Excerpts appeared first on EconomicGreenfield.