Italian
Nel 1997 Quentin Wilson – allora uno dei conduttori del programma sui motori della BBC Top Gear – andò a fare un giro di prova con un’auto elettrica.
Non ne rimase impressionato.
"Here it is, the EV-1 electric, or, as they say in California, the Volts-wagon."
Fece una prova su strada della auto elettrica da mezzo miliardo di dollari della General Motors, la EV-1.
"The batteries suck, the range is appalling and if you had to buy one, it would cost you a whopping 35,000 pounds. But let me leave you with this thought. Ten years ago, mobile phones were the size of suitcases and cost 2,000 pounds. Today they're the size of calculators and they're giving them away. Make no mistake - the days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered."
Il mese scorso, l’auto proclamatosi “Tecno-Re” Elon Musk vantava di fronte agli investitori le prospettive della sua azienda.
“We've seen a real shift in customer perception of electric vehicles, and our demand is the best we've ever seen."
Musk ha dichiararo di aspettarsi che il modello Y, il nuovo modello più economico della Tesla, diventerà l’auto più venduta tra tutte, forse addirittura dall’anno prossimo.
Ed il mercato azionario sembra credergli.
Tesla al momento vale più delle successive sei maggiori aziende automobilistiche messe insieme. Il resto dell’industria è terrorizzato dalla situazione.
UPSOT 1: Volvo advert
Questo può spiegare come mai aziende come la Volvo, Volkswagen, Ford e General Motors stiano presentando di gran fretta programmi ambiziosi per il cambio all’elettrico.
Lo scorso marzo la Volvo ha annunciato che le sue automobili saranno completamente elettriche dal 2030, ma il direttore finanziario di Volvo Europe Björn Annwall si aspetta che il mercato si muoverà molto più velocemente.
ANNWALL: "I would guess two thirds of our sales in Europe will be fully electric by 2025."
REPORTER: "By 2025? So three and a half years time?"
ANNWALL: "Yes. It's going to happen very quickly, I think we're getting into the exponential phase of this right now."
I motivi per cui la rivoluzione sta avvenendo ora e così in fretta sono di natura tecnologica.
La cosa fondamentale è il cuore non pulsante del veicolo: la batteria.
Madeleine Tyson è una ricercatrice del gruppo di ricerca sulle energie pulite americano RMI.
"Over the last ten years the cost has come down must mind-bogglingly quickly. We're already seeing two and three wheelers, whether it's electric bikes, mopeds, tuk-tuks ... you know, these things are really competitive."
Tyson ritiene che il crollo nei costi continuerà e molto probabilmente renderà i veicoli elettrici l’opzione più economica nei concessionari a partire dal 2025 – aiutando così a spingere la crescita dirompente delle vendite.
Secondo lei siamo al “momento critico” prima che le vendite entrino nella fase esponenziale.
Ma questa situazione presenta una domanda: nella fretta di diventare elettrici, rischiamo di perdere qualcosa di speciale? L’odore della benzina, il ruggito di un motore, l’emozione di fare scatenare i pistoni?
I fan dei veicoli elettrici sostengono che non perderemo nulla.
Al contrario, guadagneremo una tecnologia che è pulita, veloce, silenziosa – mentre presto potrebbero sparire frizione, carbone, puzza di bruciato e benzina.
English
In 1997, Quentin Wilson - then one of the hosts on the BBC's motoring programme Top Gear - took an early model of an electric car for a spin.
He wasn’t impressed.
"Here it is, the EV-1 electric, or, as they say in California, the Volts-wagon."
He test drove the General Motors half-billion dollar electric car, the EV-1.
"The batteries suck, the range is appalling and if you had to buy one, it would cost you a whopping 35,000 pounds. But let me leave you with this thought. Ten years ago, mobile phones were the size of suitcases and cost 2,000 pounds. Today they're the size of calculators and they're giving them away. Make no mistake - the days of the internal combustion engine are definitely numbered."
Last month, Tesla's self-styled 'techno king' Elon Musk was boasting about his company's prospects to investors.
“We've seen a real shift in customer perception of electric vehicles, and our demand is the best we've ever seen."
He says he expects Tesla's new, cheaper model Y will become the best selling car of any kind, perhaps as soon as next year.
And the stock market seems to believe him.
Tesla is now worth more than the next six biggest car companies combined. It has put the fear of god into the rest of the industry.
UPSOT 1: Volvo advert
It helps explain why companies like Volvo, Volkswagen, Ford and General Motors have been rushing out ambitious targets for going electric.
In March, Volvo said all its cars would be fully electric from 2030 but Björn Annwall the chief financial officer of Volvo Europe, expects the market to move more quickly, even, than that.
ANNWALL: "I would guess two thirds of our sales in Europe will be fully electric by 2025."
REPORTER: "By 2025? So three and a half years; time?"
ANNWALL: "Yes. It's going to happen very quickly, I think we're getting into the exponential phase of this right now."
The reason the revolution is happening now and so quickly is down to the technology.
Most importantly, the non-beating heart of the vehicle: the battery.
Madeleine Tyson is a researcher with the US-based clean energy research group RMI.
"Over the last ten years the cost has come down must mind-bogglingly quickly. We're already seeing two and three wheelers, whether it's electric bikes, mopeds, tuk-tuks... you know, these things are really competitive."
She says the drop in cost will continue and will likely make electric vehicles the cheapest option on the dealership forecourt by 2025 - helping drive explosive sales growth.
She says we are on the 'inflection point' before sales go into an exponential phase.
But all this begs a question: in the rush to electrify, do we risk losing something special? The whiff of petrol, the growl of the engine, the thrill of pistons letting rip?
The fans of electric vehicles say we're not going to lose something.
Instead, we're gaining a new technology that's clean, that's swift, that's silent - and friction, carbon, smoke, burning and oil could soon be gone.
Report by Justin Rowlatt
