Republicans are slightly favored to win the Senate
The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.
When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.
The latest
- Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania.
- Other Senate races are competitive, but the incumbent party has an identifiable advantage. For instance, Arizona and New Hampshire are close but lean toward Democrats; meanwhile, Republicans will likely hold on to North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Forecasting each Senate seat
Each party’s chances of winning the Senate seats up for election
How many Senate seats we expect each party to win
Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.
2022 Election Coverage
How the Senate forecast has changed
See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.
Who’s ahead in each state
Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.
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