Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in.

UPDATED Nov. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM

Republicans are slightly favored to win the Senate

The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the Senate most often. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible.

Republicans win 59 in 100 Democrats win 41 in 100

When Republicans and Democrats hold 50 seats each, control of the Senate is determined by the party that holds the vice presidency. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate.

Each dot represents a potential electoral outcome according to our model.

The latest

Last updated Nov. 8, 2022

  • Our final forecast for the Senate is a toss-up, with Republicans slightly favored over Democrats. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. Republicans’ two best pick-up opportunities are Nevada and Georgia. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania.
  • Other Senate races are competitive, but the incumbent party has an identifiable advantage. For instance, Arizona and New Hampshire are close but lean toward Democrats; meanwhile, Republicans will likely hold on to North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin.
Numbers need context! Read our election updates for more.

Forecasting each Senate seat

Each party’s chances of winning the Senate seats up for election

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Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats. Due to rounding, forecasts do not add to 100 in some races.
Hover over or click through a state to see a detailed view of the race.

How many Senate seats we expect each party to win

Each party’s seat count in scenarios where it wins the Senate in our Deluxe model’s 40,000 simulations. Higher bars represent more common outcomes.

Counts of Democratic seats include two independent senators who caucus with the Democrats.
Each bar on the histogram represents a possible breakdown of seats in the Senate. Color signifies the party in control.

2022 Election Coverage

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How the Senate forecast has changed

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the Senate have changed over time. The forecast updates at least once a day and whenever we get a new poll.

Our model produces probabilistic forecasts, so it estimates how likely each party is to win — not just whether it will win.

Who’s ahead in each state

Leading candidate’s forecasted chance of winning and margin of victory in each state. Dots closer to the line represent tighter races, and wider bars mean more uncertainty about the outcome.

Margin of victory