Nashville should brace for copycat events in wake of trans shooter Audrey Hale's massacre because of 'contagion' effect, FBI's former top profiler says

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The city of Nashville should be braced for copycat shooters in the wake of trans killer Audrey Hale's massacre due to a 'contagion' effect, the FBI's former top profiler tells DailyMail.com. 

'In 2000 when the FBI released its first report on school shooters, we found that the copycat influence was powerful and it influenced the 18 cases that we studied,' Mary Ellen O'Toole said. 

The report was compiled in the wake of the 1999 Columbine High School massacre which claimed the lives of 13 people, O'Toole added. The criminologist said that it was her opinion not to release the shooter's manifesto in that case, for fear of the 'contagion' effect.

According to O'Toole, communities should remain on alert for up to two weeks following a shooting because of potential copycats. 

'The term now used is the "contagion effect". More shootings will follow the one in Tennessee. I am also expecting that there will be references to other shootings in the shooter's computer, her writings, her manifesto, etc,' O'Toole added. 

Metropolitan Nashville Police Chief John Drake did not say exactly what drove the shooter to open fire Monday morning at The Covenant School before being killed by police

'There will be evidence of "injustice collecting" themes in those writings - which is a major motivator for many of these shootings,' O'Toole, the current director of the forensic sciences program at George Mason University, continued. 

Metropolitan Nashville Police Chief John Drake did not say exactly what drove the shooter to open fire Monday morning at The Covenant School before being killed by police. 

But he provided chilling examples of the shooter’s elaborate planning for the targeted attack, the latest in a series of mass shootings in a country. 

In 2000, O'Toole wrote in the report: 'School shootings and other violent incidents that receive intense media attention can generate threats or copycat violence elsewhere.'

FBI profiler Mary Ellen O'Toole is now the director of forensic sciences at George Mason University 

'Copycat behavior is very common, in fact. Anecdotal evidence strongly indicates that threats increase in schools nationwide after a shooting has occurred anywhere in the United States,' she wrote.

O'Toole encouraged students, teachers, other school staff and police to 'be more vigilant in noting disturbing students behavior' in the wake of shootings across the country. 

By Monday night, nearly 12 schools in Missouri received threats, all of which were deemed not credible, reports KMOV.   

The original 2000 study saw researchers looking at 18 cases, because that was the amount of school shootings that they could find. 'Today, we have an estimated 100 cases that have occurred since January 1st of this year,' O'Toole told DailyMail.com.

'I was brought into the Columbine case to review the basement tapes and provide an opinion as to whether or not those tapes should be released to the public,' O'Toole said of the 1999 shooting.  

'It was my opinion that they should not be released to the public - ever, because it would influence other prospective shooters. They were never released but everything else about Columbine was.' 

On April 20, 1999, Dylan Klebold, 17, and Eric Harris, 18, began a murderous rampage that left 12 students and one teacher dead in Columbine. The massacre prompted the FBI's first profiling of potential school shooters 

In the aftermath of the elementary school massacre in Uvalde, Texas, in May 2022, schools around the U.S. brought in additional security staff and restricted visitors as they dealt with a rash of copycat threats. 

Gustavo Reveles Acosta, a spokesperson for the El Paso Independent School District, told the Associated Press in May that the district, which has its own police department, stepped up patrolling all 85 campuses. 

Officers have been pulled from monitoring traffic or other duties. Schools already have updated camera surveillance systems. Visitors are required to ring a doorbell and show identification before they can enter.

The district is making a point to look out for teachers’ and students’ mental health. A counseling team has been visiting every school to speak about the shooting in Uvalde. They are also urging people to talk in private about any distress.

Schools ramped up police presence in a host of states, including Connecticut, Michigan and New York, after the Uvalde massacre. 

Salvador Ramos, 18, (pictured) shot and killed 19 students and two teachers in Uvalde in May 2022, prompting nationwide increased security at schools

The same month, in Buffalo, where a white gunman fatally shot 10 people in a racist attack in a supermarket on May 14, the largest school district announced new security rules effective immediately. 

Any visitors — parents, siblings, vendors — have to call ahead for approval. No exceptions will be made. They may be subjected to a search by a wand detector. Doors will be locked at all times. 

In Jacksonville, Florida, the Duval County Public Schools’ chief of school police banned backpacks or large handbags at any school through Friday, the last day of school. Small purses were allowed but could be searched.

Less than a week after the Robb Elementary School massacre, two Seattle-area schools went into lockdown leading to police eventually recovering an airsoft gun. The Everett, Washington, schools then had their lockdowns lifted.

Two people were arrested Thursday after a Denver high school locked down its campus. Police found a paintball gun but no other firearms. Classes were canceled anyway.

Police gave unclear information on the gender of the Nashville shooter. For hours, police identified the shooter as a 28-year-old woman and eventually identified the person as Audrey Elizabeth Hale. 

Then at a late afternoon press conference, the police chief said that Hale was transgender. After the news conference, police spokesperson Don Aaron declined to elaborate on how Hale currently identified.

Police released this image of Hale on Monday

Authorities said Hale was armed with two 'assault-style' weapons as well as a handgun. 

At least two of them were believed to have been obtained legally in the Nashville area, according to the chief. Police said a search of Hale’s home turned up a sawed-off shotgun, a second shotgun and other unspecified evidence.

The victims were identified as Evelyn Dieckhaus, Hallie Scruggs, and William Kinney, all 9 years old, and adults Cynthia Peak, 61; Katherine Koonce, 60; and Mike Hill, 61.

The website of The Covenant School, a Presbyterian school founded in 2001, lists a Katherine Koonce as the head of the school. Her LinkedIn profile says she has led the school since July 2016. Peak was a substitute teacher and Hill was a custodian, according to investigators.

Founded as a ministry of Covenant Presbyterian Church, The Covenant School is located in the affluent Green Hills neighborhood just south of downtown Nashville.

The school has about 200 students from preschool through sixth grade, as well as roughly 50 staff members.

'Our community is heartbroken,' a statement from the school said. 'We are grieving tremendous loss and are in shock coming out of the terror that shattered our school and church. We are focused on loving our students, our families, our faculty and staff and beginning the process of healing.'