REAL FAKE NEWS: It was a beautiful spring Monday in Washington when officials and reporters in the Pentagon began to be barraged with questions about a reported explosion outside the building, which according to a photo that quickly went viral, was sending a massive plume of black smoke into the air. It was quickly revealed to be a hoax.
“There’s no explosion or fire at or near the Pentagon-apparently these are false reports circulating on social media,” tweeted Voice of America correspondent Carla Babb. “People inside the building have absolutely no idea about any explosion.”
To anyone familiar with the Pentagon, the photo was obviously fake, or at the very least, not the Pentagon. The building pictured was too tall and looked nothing like the iconic five-sided building.
But after the initial report was tweeted from a “verified” Twitter account that claimed to be retweeting Bloomberg News reports, the photo reached millions of people who saw it on Russia’s RT site and in breaking news reports as far away as India. The account @BloombergFeed has been suspended.
The Arlington County Fire Department, which was the first to respond to the 9/11 attack in 2001, was forced to tweet out a denial. “There is NO explosion or incident taking place at or near the Pentagon reservation, and there is no immediate danger or hazards to the public.”
THE MEANINGLESS BLUE CHECK: The fake image, which many posited was created by artificial intelligence, hit the internet just after 9:30 a.m. when the stock market opened, triggering computerized algorithmic trading, which tracks news events, and causing a brief dip in the S&P 500 before the fake photo was was debunked.
Many observers speculated that the hoax was an attempt to manipulate the market just enough to make a profit on the small 0.3% ripple.
But many critics focused on the problem created when Twitter owner Elon Musk began selling blue check verification last year for $8 a month. As a result, the blue check no longer indicates that the individual or organization is who they purport to be, and fake accounts have been proliferating.
The fake Pentagon image initially gained traction because it appeared to come from a legitimate, verified account.
THE LIAR’S DIVIDEND: While the hoax was quickly exposed and the market recovered, the episode underscores the other insidious threat of realistic AI-generated images combined with Twitter accounts impersonating legitimate officials and organizations to not only spread false narratives but to also undermine the public trust in the news media, already at a historic low.
The phenomenon is known as the “Liar’s Dividend,” the idea that fake news not only tricks people into believing something false is true but also that it increases suspicion that true things are false.
“The Liar’s Dividend suggests that in addition to fueling the flames of falsehoods, the debunking efforts actually legitimize the debate over the veracity,” said the non-profit Poynter Institute in a 2019 essay. “This creates smoke and fans suspicions among at least some in the audience that there might well be something true about the claim.”
The corrosive effect of the rise of fake news is that even well-informed news consumers can become confused about what to believe.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Czech Republic Defense Minister Jana Cernochova at the Pentagon at 2 p.m.
WHAT’S HAPPENING IN BELGOROD? It’s not entirely clear what’s going on in a small border town in Russia’s Belgorod region, where pro-Ukrainian partisans apparently carried out a cross-border incursion that “captured” the hamlet of Kozinka.
The Kremlin said the incursion was the work of Ukrainian saboteurs and said Russian troops would “push them out from the Russian territory and liquidate them.”
In a video, the invaders variously called themselves the “Russian Volunteer Corps” or “Liberty of Russia Legion” and said they are anti-Putin partisans who seek to “end the Kremlin’s dictatorship.”
“We are Russians just like you. We are people just like you. We want our children to grow up in peace and be free people, so that they can travel, study and just be happy in a free country,” a gun-toting spokesman said.
RUSSIAN GOVERNOR ALARMED AS PRO-UKRAINE MILITIAS STRIKE TO ‘LIBERATE’ BORDER REGION
UK: RUSSIA FACING BORDER UNREST: The latest intelligence update from the British Defense Ministry confirms that there have been several days of fighting between Russian security forces and partisans but says the identity of the pro-Ukrainian forces has not been confirmed.
“Russia has evacuated several villages and has deployed extra security forces to the area,” according to the update. “Russia is facing an increasingly serious multi-domain security threat in its border regions, with losses of combat aircraft, improvised explosive device attacks on rail lines, and now direct partisan action.”
“Russia will almost certainly use these incidents to support the official narrative that it is the victim in the war.”
RUSSIA CLAIMS SUCCESS IN BAKHMUT AS UKRAINE SHIFTS FOCUS TO CITY’S OUTSKIRTS
CEMENTING A PACIFIC ALLY: Because President Joe Biden has to rush back to Washington to deal with the looming debt ceiling crisis, it fell to Secretary of State Antony Blinken to sign a new security pact with Papua New Guinea as the United States seeks to shore up alliances in the Pacific to counter China’s growing influence.
“The agreements that we reached, the work that we’re doing, is not about any other country. It’s about our relationship with the Pacific Islands and the shared vision that we have for this region,” said Blinken during a stop in Port Moresby. “We need a region where countries are free to choose their own path and their own partners, where problems will be dealt openly, transparently.”
In a statement, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin called the U.S.-Papua New Guinea Defense Cooperation Agreement “an important milestone” that will help ensure the “security and prosperity” of the region.
Papua New Guinea, which was the site of many battles in World War II, is strategically located just north of Australia and is the most populous Pacific Island nation, with a population of nearly 10 million.
“This agreement will serve as the foundational framework for our two countries to enhance our security cooperation, improve the capacity of the PNG Defence Force, and increase stability and security in the region,” Austin said.
WHO DID US KILL IN SYRIA? The possibility that the U.S. military may have killed an innocent civilian instead of a senior al Qaeda leader in Syria three weeks ago has two Democrats in the House calling for a full investigation, reported Washington Examiner defense reporter Mike Brest.
Last week, Maj. John Moore, a spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, told Brest that it is “investigating to determine whether or not the action may have unintentionally resulted in harm to civilians.”
“We’re alarmed by reports that the U.S. military is no longer confident this strike killed a senior al-Qaeda official and instead may have killed Lotfi Hassan Misto, a father of ten who was tending to his sheep in northwest Syria,” Reps. Sara Jacobs (D-CA) and Jason Crow (D-CO), the co-chairs of the Protection of Civilians in Conflict Caucus, said in a statement. “Since forming this caucus last year, we’ve focused on preventing, reducing, and making amends for incidents of civilian harm — and it’s clear that our work is still sorely needed.”
The possibility that the strike killed an innocent chicken farmer was first reported by the Washington Post, which said it was “unclear whether American commanders overseeing the strike realized Misto lived close by, whether his home’s proximity to the ‘known area of interest’ to al-Qaeda was a factor in their belief that he was a militant.”
KEY GROUP OF LAWMAKERS CALLS FOR ‘FULL INVESTIGATION’ INTO SYRIAN STRIKE
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russian governor alarmed as pro-Ukraine militias strike to ‘liberate’ border region
Washington Examiner: Russia claims success in Bakhmut as Ukraine shifts focus to city’s outskirts
Washington Examiner: Key group of lawmakers calls for ‘full investigation’ into Syrian strike
Washington Examiner: McCarthy says no debt ceiling deal yet despite improved ‘tone’ after tensions
Washington Examiner: Israel sees ‘high potential’ for ‘big war’ with Iran-backed Hezbollah
Washington Examiner: Top Chinese and Russian spy chiefs meet in Moscow
Washington Examiner: White House offers rare support for GOP bill to tackle one section of border crisis
Washington Examiner: Fentanyl seizures at the border in April reach record high
Washington Examiner: Crenshaw slams Biden’s ‘wrong’ defense instincts: ‘Don’t know what goes on in Biden’s head’
Washington Examiner: Opinion: France wins China’s silent favor for diluted G7 communique
National Defense Magazine: Debt Default Would Be ‘Catastrophic’ For National Security, Service Chiefs Say
Politico: How Tuberville’s Blockade Of Pentagon Nominees Could End
Washington Post: Before-and-after images show why Zelensky compared Bakhmut’s destruction to Hiroshima
Reuters: UN Concerned By Lack Of Grain Ships Going To One Ukrainian Port
AP: US Bomb Designed to Hit Targets Like Iran Underground Nuclear Sites Briefly Reappears Amid Tensions
Wall Street Journal: Rise in Nuclear Arms Threatens Curbs
AP: Air Force Looks to Better Control Access to Classified Data After Intelligence Leak
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Kendall: F-16s Not a ‘Game-Changer’ for Ukraine But ‘Something They Need’
Politico: How Biden Got to Yes on F-16s and Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Putin Might Send Su-57 Stealth Fighters to Ukraine to Hunt F-16s
19fortyfive.com: Quadcopters: Why Russia, Ukraine and America Have Different Drone Strategies
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Will Pick Just One NGAD Design in 2024, Kendall Says
19fortyfive.com: ‘Old’ Soldiers: Why Russia’s Military Is Being Destroyed in Ukraine
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New House Bill Aims to Keep 25 ANG Fighter Squadrons. Here’s Why USAF Is Wary
Breaking Defense: Space Force, IC Warily Approach Agreement on Commercial Intel Imagery Buys
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Get Ready for Sky Warden: First Delivery Set for October
Defense One: Bringing GPS to the Moon Is the Next Frontier
Defense News: Geospatial-Intelligence Agency Making Strides on Project Maven AI
19fortyfive.com: Joint Light Tactical Vehicle: Why Militaries Everywhere Want the JLTV
The Cipher Brief: Understanding the World Like a CIA Analyst
Calendar
TUESDAY | MAY 23
9 a.m. — Peterson Institute for International Economics virtual discussion: “A Renewed Look at Russia’s Wartime Economy,” with Iikka Korhonen, head of the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies; Nataliia Shapoval, chairwoman of the Kyiv School of Economics Institute; and Nicolas Veron, senior fellow at PIIE https://www.piie.com/events/renewed-look-russias-wartime-economy
12 p.m. Brussels, Belgium — German Marshall Fund of the U.S. 2023 Brussels Forum (May 23-24) discussion: “The Future of Russia – Potential Scenarios and Their Implications for International Security,” with Assistant NATO Secretary-General for Public Diplomacy Baiba Braze https://www.gmfus.org/brussels-forum-2023
12:30 p.m. — Business Council for International Understanding discussion: “France’s defense priorities, important developments in the EU and NATO on defense capabilities and the response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” with French Air and Space Force Maj. Gen. Bertrand Jardin, French defense attaché to the U.S. Closed to press. RSVP: [email protected]
2 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Czech Republic Defense Minister Jana Cernochova
2 p.m. HVC-210 — House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Europe hearing: “Examining the Fiscal Year 24 State and Foreign Operations Budget Request for Europe,” with testimony from Dereck Hogan, principal deputy assistant secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs, State Department; Erin Elizabeth McKee, assistant administrator, Bureau for Europe and Eurasia, U.S. Agency for International Development; and Maria Longi, coordinator, Office of the Coordinator of U.S. Assistance to Europe and Eurasia, State Department https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
2 p.m. 310 Cannon — House Homeland Security Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee hearing: “A Security Sprint: Assessing the U.S. Homeland’s Vulnerabilities to Chinese Communist Party Aggression,” with testimony from Iranga Kahangama, assistant Homeland Security secretary for cyber, infrastructure, risk, and resilience in the Office of Strategy, Policy, and Plans; Tyrone Durham, acting director of the Nation State Threats Center in Homeland Security’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis; and Jill Murphy, deputy assistant FBI director of counterintelligence https://www.youtube.com/channel
4 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “21st Century Soldiers of the Sea,” with Marine Corps Commandant Gen. David Berger https://www.brookings.edu/events/21st-century-soldiers-of-the-sea
WEDNESDAY | MAY 24
9 a.m — Mara Karlin, assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities delivers keynote address to the MEI-CENTCOM Annual Conference https://mei.edu/events/third-mei-centcom-annual-conference
9:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party business meeting, followed by a media availability with Chairman Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI). The committee plans to release two reports: recommendations based on a Taiwan war game and recommendations related to the Uyghur genocide https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
9:30 a.m. — Hudson Institute event: “U.S. Leadership in Tech Diplomacy: A Conversation with Ambassador Nathaniel Fick,” with Nathaniel Fick, U.S. ambassador at large for cyberspace and digital policy; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chairman, Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/us-leadership-tech-diplomacy
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW — Wilson Center Asia Program discussion: “The Belt and Road’s Impact on Partner States,” with Nara Sritharan, postdoctoral fellow at AidData; Matt Ferchen, senior fellow at the Leiden Asia Center; Matthew Erie, associate professor at the University of Oxford; and Jonathan Solis, senior research analyst at AidData https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/belt-and-roads-impact-partner-states
10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Schriever Spacepower Series discussion with Lt. Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander, Space Operations Command https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/event
11:30 a.m. 1700 Army Navy Dr., Arlington, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: “Space Force: Reimagining Space Security,” with Col. Richard Niseley, chief of the Space Systems Command Space Systems Integration Office’s Enterprise Requirements and Architectures Division https://afceadc.swoogo.com/space23/
12 p.m. — Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress in-person book event: Russia’s War & The Russian People’s Understanding of the War In Ukraine, with author Jade McGlynn, research fellow, War Studies Department, King’s College, London. RSVP: [email protected]
12 p.m. — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft virtual discussion: “The Search for a Ceasefire in Ukraine,” with Thomas Graham, fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations; Miriam Pemberton, associate fellow at the Institute for Policy Studies; Jeffrey Sachs, director of Columbia University’s Center for Sustainable Development; George Beebe, director of grand strategy at the Quincy Institute; and Anatol Lieven, director of the Quincy Institute’s Eurasia Program https://quincyinst.org/event/the-search-for-a-ceasefire-in-ukraine/
2 p.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing: “Modernizing U.S. Arms Exports and a Stronger AUKUS,” with testimony from Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis; and Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategies, Plans and Capabilities Mara Karlin https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/hearing
2 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Navigating Naval Security in the Digital Age,” with Brian Patrick Laird, assistant commander for supply chain technology in the Naval Supply Systems Command; Navy Deputy Director of Enterprise Networks and Cybersecurity Scott St. Pierre; Travis Howerton, chief technology officer at RegScale; and Enrique Oti, chief technology officer at Second Front Systems https://events.govexec.com/fcw-agency-spotlight-navigating-naval-security
THURSDAY | MAY 25
12:30 p.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy virtual policy forum: “Turkey’s Presidential Runoff: What to Expect May 28 and After,” with Humeyra Pamuk, senior foreign policy correspondent for Reuters; Emre Peker, director for Europe, Eurasia Group consultancy; and Elcin Poyrazlar, political columnist for Cumhuriyet, Turkey’s oldest newspaper https://washingtoninstitute-org.zoom.us/webinar/register
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “The U.S. Role in Indo-Pacific Security,” with Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary for Indo-Pacific security affairs; and Siddharth Mohandas, deputy assistant defense secretary for East Asia https://www.csis.org/events/us-role-indo-pacific-security
3 p.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Brookings Institution discussion: “What does the future hold for Taiwan?” with Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; Shelley Rigger, professor of political science at Davidson College; and Kharis Templeman, manager of Stanford University’s Project on Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region https://www.brookings.edu/events
6 p.m. 901 K St. NW — Women’s Foreign Policy Group discussion: “International Principles of Responsible Artificial Intelligence (AI),” with Jennifer Bachus, principal deputy assistant secretary of state for cyberspace and digital policy; Natasha Crampton, chief responsible AI officer at Microsoft; Michelle Giuda, director of the Krach Institute for Tech Diplomacy at Purdue; Lloyd Whitman, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoTech Center; and Cat Zakrzewski, technology policy reporter at the Washington Post https://wfpg.memberclicks.net
FRIDAY | MAY 26
8:30 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “India’s Role in the International Order,” with Garima Mohan, senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S.’ Indo-Pacific Program; C. Raja Mohan, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute of New Delhi; Tanvi Madan, director of the Brookings India Project; and Bruce Jones, director of the Brookings Project on International Order and Strategy https://www.brookings.edu/events/indias-role
10 a.m. Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Md. — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin delivers graduation address at the U.S. Naval Academy 2023 commencement ceremony https://www.defense.gov/News/Live-Events
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“You have to understand that there is nothing. They’ve destroyed everything. There are no buildings. It’s a pity. It’s tragedy. But, for today, Bakhmut is only in our hearts. There is nothing on this place, just ground and a lot of dead Russians. But they came to us, so our defenders in Bakhmut, they did strong work.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in Japan, comparing the destruction of the centuries-old city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine to the devastation of Hiroshima after the atomic bombing of World War II.
