That possibility would come with a cost, though. Many Democrats have said they’ll only consider voting to keep Johnson if he takes up new Ukraine aid.

Johnson has a narrower margin than McCarthy did, and there’s no guarantee he’ll make a deal across the aisle. As of April 19, he can only afford to lose two Republicans if no Democrats step in. Even if most conservatives aren’t committed to voting against him, many are upset that Johnson passed a $1.2 trillion government funding deal with mostly Democratic votes.

Whether his speakership survives depends on several blocs and members, including Greene herself. Here’s who to watch:

The Chief Antagonist

Marjorie Taylor Greene

The firebrand Georgia Republican hasn’t yet said when she’ll actually force a vote on removing Johnson. She’s signaled she did it to punish Johnson for the massive spending bill he put on the House floor in late March, which passed with mostly Democratic votes.

While Greene has said she will bring it up for a vote, until she introduces it on the floor she could just keep the threat on the table as a negotiating tactic. Once she takes that step, however, Johnson has to bring it up for a vote within 48 hours.

She might elect to wait a couple weeks, since Johnson’s already slim GOP margin is about to shrink to a single vote. Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) leaves the House on April 19.

The McCarthy Foes

Matt Gaetz, Tim Burchett, Bob Good, Nancy Mace, Andy Biggs, Eli Crane and Matt Rosendale

Of the eight Republicans who voted to boot McCarthy in October, none are explicitly on board with the effort to oust Johnson. Some have outright said no, others aren’t committing either way.

Not into it:

• Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who led the motion to oust McCarthy last year, said he’s “just not ready to support a motion to vacate” for Johnson.
• Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.) said he “isn’t there yet” on getting rid of Johnson.
• Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) said at a campaign stop that he’s not on board with removing Johnson at this point. “We’re trying to influence him to do the right thing,” he said.
• Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) said she would vote no on a so-called motion to vacate.

Interested, but not a solid yes … yet:

• Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) says he’s “increasingly disappointed in his performance as speaker.” But Biggs has serious doubts about the plausibility of removing Johnson: “I don’t think it’s going to happen, regardless of whether we want it to.”
• Rep. Eli Crane (R-Ariz.) told CNN he is “open to that conversation.”
• Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.) was a big Johnson booster until the speaker withdrew his endorsement of Rosendale for Senate, who later dropped his bid altogether. After the spending deal passed, Rosendale framed it as a “Johnson-Schumer-Biden swamp” funding bill. He also lamented broken promises from leadership about giving members 72 hours to review legislation.

Not a factor:

• Ken Buck of Colorado has left the House.

Angry Wildcards

Chip Roy, Thomas Massie and Victoria Spartz

Plenty of House conservatives are furious about the latest massive spending package, which passed without backing from the majority of Republicans. But it’s still unclear if that anger will translate to real action against Johnson.

Reps. Chip Roy (R-Texas) and Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) are vocally frustrated with Johnson for both breaking a policy to give lawmakers 72 hours to consider bills and repeatedly relying on Democratic votes to pass major legislation, cutting out the Rules Committee. They’re also wary about how Johnson will handle a foreign aid package that includes cash for Ukraine. Neither backed the effort to oust McCarthy, who had given them both spots on the coveted Rules panel.

“What is your mission, sir?” Massie asked of Johnson on social media last week, accusing the speaker of backing “earmarks that undermine morality.”

Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Ind.) is another unknown in the speakership drama. The Ukrainian-born lawmaker — who announced and then retracted her retirement plans — supports Ukraine aid. If Johnson’s future hinges on a vote to get cash to Kyiv, Spartz could be a key figure.

Centrist Democrats

Hakeem Jeffries, Jared Golden, Josh Gottheimer, Ed Case and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez

Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries has said he believes a “reasonable number” of his Democratic colleagues could step in to save Johnson — if the speaker allows a vote on a foreign aid bill that includes money for Ukraine.

Multiple House Democrats — like Reps. Abigail Spanburger (Va.), Jamie Raskin (Md.), Adam Smith (Wash.) and Annie Kuster (N.H.). — have backed that up, saying they would personally vote to save Johnson’s job if it meant also securing funding for Ukraine’s war with Russia.

Other Democrats who are pushing a deal on Ukraine aid could join them, including Reps. Jared Golden (Maine), Josh Gottheimer (N.J.), Ed Case (Hawaii) and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.). They’ve all signed onto a discharge petition, a vehicle to try to force a vote on Ukraine aid legislation that would link the funding to border policies that Republicans favor, like the “remain in Mexico” program, which forces certain asylum seekers to wait in Mexico until their cases are resolved.

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.