A new survey out from The Hill and Emerson University suggests that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could be an enormous drag on President Joe Biden’s campaign and an enormous help to former President Donald Trump’s.
According to the poll in question, Trump boasts leads in each of the seven key swing states that are expected to decide the election this November when voters are given a binary choice between the last two commanders-in-chief, winning Arizona by 4 points, Georgia by 3, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 2, North Carolina by 5, and Michigan and Nevada by 1.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill
ARIZONA
🟥 Trump 48% (+4)
🟦 Biden 44%
.
GEORGIA
🟥 Trump 47% (+3)
🟦 Biden 44%
.
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump 47% (+2)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump 47% (+2)
🟦 Biden 45%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump 47% (+5)
🟦 Biden 42%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump 45% (+1)… pic.twitter.com/Z2sJbQoncV— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 30, 2024
When Kennedy is added to respondents’ choices, those leads only grow. In Georgia, Kennedy’s inclusion extends Trump’s lead over the field to 6 points. In a three-way matchup, Trump also benefits from Kennedy’s quixotic campaign in Wisconsin, where he leads by 5, Pennsylvania (+4), North Carolina (+9), and Nevada (+5). His margin of victory in Arizona and Michigan would remain unchanged.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: Emerson/The Hill
WISCONSIN
🟥 Trump 45% (+5)
🟦 Biden 40%
🟨 RFK Jr 6%
🟪 Other 1%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump 45% (+4)
🟦 Biden 41%
🟨 RFK Jr 6%
🟪 Other 2%
.
NORTH CAROLINA
🟥 Trump 46% (+9)
🟦 Biden 37%
🟨 RFK Jr 6%
🟪 Other 2%
.
NEVADA
🟥 Trump 42% (+5)
🟦 Biden… https://t.co/rOGtOR0yfP pic.twitter.com/82oLH6YE9w— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 30, 2024
Kennedy and Trump have begun to trade barbs after having previously expressed some affinity for each other.
“RFK Jr. is a Democrat ‘Plant,’ a Radical Left Liberal who’s been put in place in order to help Crooked Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States, get Re-Elected,” wrote Trump in a recent Truth Social Post. “A Vote for Junior’ would essentially be a WASTED PROTEST VOTE, that could swing either way, but would only swing against the Democrats if Republicans knew the true story about him.”
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