Helene updates: Big Bend braces for Cat. 4 hurricane, 132 mph winds, 20 foot storm surge

A strengthening Helene in the Gulf of Mexico is the latest tropical terror to grip Florida.

The expected Category 4 hurricane closing in on Florida's Big Bend has already prompted three coastal counties – Franklin, Wakulla and Taylor – to order all residents to evacuate in the face of a projected and "not survivable" 15-foot storm surge. Helene could also become Tallahassee's worst wind event in recorded history as 100 mph winds meet "Tree City USA."

Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and a hurricane forecaster for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene, which became a hurricane Wednesday morning, is a storm without precedent.

"Helene stands toe-to-toe with any of the threats that Florida has faced over the past ten years or indeed really over hurricane history."

Here's the latest from the path of the storm:

Just what does catastrophic mean? A sobering snapshot from National Weather Service

If you need a picture of what catastrophic means, look no further than the National Weather Service's latest hurricane statement.

• "Damage to critical infrastructure, catastrophic damage to the trees and powerlines, widespread inaccessibility due to blocked roads, and damage to well-built structures will all be likely, particularly close to and east of the track. Power outages will likely last days, if not weeks."
• "Potential wind impacts in this area include: Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations may be uninhabitable for weeks or months. Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and roadway signs blown over. Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. Widespread power and communications outages."

• "There is a danger of catastrophic and unsurvivable storm surge for Apalachee Bay. This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay. Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously!"
• "Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period. Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded. Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible. Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded."
• "Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations and rescues. Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out."

Florida State University to evacuate student from dorms 'in an abundance of caution,' turns Tucker Center into 'refuge facility'

This evening, FSU's emergency management team alerted the campus community that it will be relocating students to more fortified facilities as the city braces for a possible Category 4 hurricane, a storm without precedent for Florida's capital city.

"Out of an abundance of caution, students living in residence halls will be asked to relocate to other university facilities," the 7:20 p.m. FSU alert stated. "Students will receive their assigned location by 9 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 26.  On-campus refuge space is tentatively scheduled to open at 10 a.m. and all students must be in place by NOON (12 p.m.)"

At the same time, FSU announced it would be turning the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center into a "refuge facility" for off-campus students.

"Florida State University will open a refuge facility at the Donald L. Tucker Civic Center beginning 10 a.m. Thursday, Sept. 26, for the duration of the storm to current registered students who live off-campus and feel unsafe to weather Hurricane Helene in their current living situation," FSU Alert stated. "It will remain open until FSU issues the ALL CLEAR. No guests or individuals not currently registered for classes will be permitted in the Tucker Center refuge."

Students must arrive at the Tucker Center with a FSU ID no later than noon as travel conditions will begin to deteriorate at the time.

Helene storm surge to come ‘uncomfortably close’ to Wakulla Springs

A storm surge warning is in effect for both coastal Wakulla County and parts inland, said David Reese, meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Tallahassee.

Reese said one reason for the inland surge is that rising water could come up the St. Marks River, he said.

“That storm surge warning does include St. Marks,” Reese said. “It does go up to near Newport. It does not quite get to Crawfordville. It is forecast to get to the other side of U.S. 98 between Newport and Medart or Sopchoppy. Right now, we’re forecasting it to come just shy of Wakulla Springs, although it could get uncomfortably close.”

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said earlier this evening that storm surge could hit 15 to 20 feet along the Apalachee Bay from Hurricane Helene, now forecast to hit Category 4 strength.

Reese added that storm surge is the amount of water covering what would otherwise be dry land.

“At the immediate coast, if you’re standing at the edge of the water ... 15 to 20 feet of water could be over (your) head tomorrow or tomorrow night,” Reese said. “Things taper down the more inland you go because of terrain and everything else. But that does not include wave action — so you can add waves on top of that.”

NHC: Helene forecast to become Category 4 storm with 132 mph winds; storm surge could hit 20 feet

Hurricane Helene is now forecast to become a Category 4 storm, with devastating wind speeds of up to 132 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

"But additional strengthening might be possible," a meteorologist with the National Weather Service told the Tallahassee Democrat.

The NHC also ratcheted up storm surge predictions for Apalachee Bay to as high as 20 feet in its 5 p.m. forecast.

"A catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves," NHC said. "There is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula."

Steinhatchee bar owner: Helene coming so fast 'we didn't have time to prepare much'

Scott Peters, owner of Crabbie Dad's bar in Steinhatchee, supervised a crew Wednesday, a day before Hurricane Helene's forecast arrival, loading beer, coolers, and liquor into trucks and moving it all to safety further inland.

Peters, 46, said the storms that have hit the bar he’s owned for 19 years seem to keep getting stronger and each season. The bar sits about 100 feet across First Avenue from where the Steinhatchee River empties into Deadman Bay.

"We’re taking everything I can lift and move and things I didn’t take out last time that I learned a lesson from,” said Peters. “You take every storm as serious as you can because this is such a low-lying area. We’re basically at sea level.”

As he spoke, a county emergency alert sounded on nearby cell phones, warning of a dangerous storm surge and cautioning people to have three days of supplies on hand before the storm hits Thursday evening.

Peters said how bad the storm surge gets will depend in part on what the tides are doing as the hurricane hits sure. But he worried that because it gained strength so rapidly, it’s plowing a huge pile of water toward shore.

He said growing up in the area, people used to have hurricane parties and write out storms. But the recent string of more powerful hurricanes hitting the area has convinced him that’s no longer a good idea.

“If thing comes in and goes over us as fast as they’re saying, we could get 8-10 feet of water. That’s what scares me,” said Peters. “The thing’s coming so damn fast we didn’t have time to prepare much.”

— Trevor Hughes, USA Today

Leon County has distributed more than 25K sandbags ahead of Hurricane Helene

Leon County Administrator Vince Long said the county has given out nearly 25,000 sandbags as the community braces for a direct hit from Helene.

In an afternoon email update, Long also said that Public Works crews have been operating around the clock preparing for the hurricane and debris removal contractors are on standby.

Long said workers have pre-deployed barricades and equipment near places that historically flood and that road crews will be embedded at six different schools so they can immediately deploy once conditions are safe. The crews will be stationed at Fort Braden School, Chiles High School, Chaires, Canopy Oaks and Woodville elementary schools and Montford Middle School.

He said Leon County Emergency Medical Services has "surge staffing" plans in place and that crews will be pre-deployed for rapid response "before, during and after the storm."

The Consolidated Dispatch Agency is prepared to stage a backup call center, Long added, and is working with neighboring counties to provide 911 coverage should phone or internet service go down.

"The most severe threat for our community ... remains hurricane-force winds that could cause widespread power outages, significant property damage and put lives at risk," Long said.

In Wakulla County, all residents ordered to evacuate, but some inmates are left behind

Residents in Wakulla County in Florida’s Big Bend region are under mandatory orders to evacuate by 8 a.m. Thursday, but some inmates are being left behind.

The Wakulla County Sheriff’s Office said it has no plans to evacuate the jail. It has capacity for 350 inmates. A spokesperson said the jail isn’t full but couldn’t say exactly how many inmates were there Wednesday.

There are two state prison facilities in the county, the Wakulla Correctional Institution and its satellite, the Wakulla Correctional Institution Annex. Those prisons weren’t evacuated Wednesday. They can hold more than 2,500 prisons combined.

The Florida Department of Corrections has already announced it had completed the evacuations of about 2,500 other inmates from 25 other prisons across 14 counties. It wasn’t immediately clear whether the Wakulla County prisons would be evacuated later, ahead of the hurricane making landfall.

– Valentina Sandoval

North Florida residents weary as Helene to become fifth hurricane to hit in eight years

The forecast arrival on Thursday of another hurricane seems like a recurring nightmare for residents of Florida's Big Bend and eastern Panhandle.

Helene is expected to be the fifth hurricane to smack this roughly 200 miles of mostly rural coast between Panama City and Cedar Key in just eight years. Only three hurricanes have arrived elsewhere along the rest of the state's more than 800 miles of coastline over that time span.

In Steinhatchee, tensions felt high when Janalea England and her husband walked into a local restaurant for lunch Monday. The community is "just getting recovered from Idalia," she said. Two friends along that stretch of coast told her: "If we get hit again, we're done."

As concerned as she is about her own community's slow recovery, England is even more concerned about Cedar Key, a historic fishing community 40 miles to the south. The rural archipelago also suffered flooding and damage from Idalia and Debby. Then last week, a fire damaged four businesses along the town's Dock Street, the city said. On Tuesday, the city posted evacuation warnings and photos of residents prepping sandbags.

Some Cedar Key restaurants and small businesses still suffer from previous storms, England said. "Now you've got this thing? I could see someone could wash their hands."

— Dinah Voyles Pulver, USA Today

NHC ups storm surge forecast to unheard of 18 feet for Big Bend coast

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said storm surge could hit a mind-boggling 12 to 18 feet along the Big Bend coast from roughly the Carrabelle River to the Chassahowitzka River. That's up several feet from the most recent forecasts.

"Due to the large size of Helene, there is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend," the NHC said. "The highest inundation of greater than 10 feet is expected along the Florida Big Bend coast. Residents in those areas should follow advice given by local officials and evacuate if told to do so."

Numerous counties in the Big Bend are under mandatory or voluntary evacuation orders. A list can be found at www.floridadisaster.org/evacuation-orders.

Weather Tiger: Helene will hit Big Bend with a 'cataclysmic' blow

Hurricane Helene is on track to become the strongest hurricane to make landfall in Apalachee Bay since the 1840s, Dr. Ryan Truchelut of Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger said in his most recent forecast.

"Due to the intensity and extraordinary size of the storm, Helene will bring catastrophic, life-threatening surge to the west-central Florida and Big Bend coasts, and a core of destructive winds to a broad swath of North Florida and Georgia that likely includes Tallahassee, Truchelut wrote.

He said landfall somewhere in Apalachee Bay on Thursday evening is probable, most likely between 6 p.m. and midnight. "This is just a touch west of yesterday’s track," he added.

There was little to no good news in the forecast. Helene, feeding off Gulf waters "heated to a stupefying historical extreme," is expected to rapidly intensify to a Category 3 hurricane, though a Category 4 is not out of the question.

Because of Helene's size, impacts will be felt hundreds of miles from the Hurricane Center's cone, especially on the eastern half of the storm, he wrote.

"The anticipated landfall on Thursday is a truly unprecedented scenario for North Florida. Between Michael’s Category 5 landfall in Mexico Beach in 2018 and an 1896 Category 3 hit on Cedar Key, the only other major hurricane to make landfall anywhere in Apalachee Bay since 1851 is last year’s Idalia — which as a relatively compact storm, is a poor comparable to the gargantuan Helene. A major hurricane has never on record moved into Leon County, which the current NHC forecast shows."

Gadsden County issues voluntary evacuation

Gadsden County issued a voluntary evacuation and is opening several emergency shelters in response to Hurricane Helene.

"If you live in a mobile home or an unsafe structure, please evacuate to a shelter or somewhere else that is safe," Gadsden County Emergency Management said in a Facebook post. "Please take action before the impacts of the storm. Remember first responders will not be able to respond after winds reach above 40 mph."

Shelters are scheduled to open at 4 p.m. today at Gadsden County High School, 27001 Blue Star Highway, Havana, and West Gadsden Middle School, 200 Providence Road, Quincy. Gadsden High will house the general population and people with special needs and pets; West Gadsden Middle will house the general population.

Florida State University advises students to consider evacuating

FSU Alert, the Florida State University emergency warning system, is recommending that "individuals should strongly consider making plans to leave the Tallahassee area TODAY before weather conditions deteriorate and be prepared to be away from campus for an extended period of time."

"As a major hurricane, Helene has the potential to cause severe wind damage and widespread power outages in the Tallahassee area," FSU Alert stated, "The university’s operations could be disrupted for a significantly longer period than initially anticipated." 

Tallahassee's history of dodging bullets with hurricanes may come to a violent end

Tallahassee has a mostly charmed history with hurricanes, though that's changed a bit over recent years – and may end violently on Thursday if Hurricane Helene's eyewall tears thorough Tallahassee.

In the past, hurricanes of all sizes have either lost their wind strength by the time they hit us (Eloise, 1975; Alma, 1966). Or they veer around Tallahassee, while dumping tons of rain (numerous times).

Click here to learn about some of the most notable storms to pass through the area.

'Prepare for a direct hit,' city of Tallahassee officials warn

The city of Tallahassee just texted its utility customers the following: "Helene has been upgraded to a hurricane and is forecast to be a major hurricane with peak winds of 125mph before making landfall tomorrow, with Tallahassee projected to receive a direct hit. Finalize all preparations and plans now."

Helene reaches hurricane status

While crossing into the Gulf of Mexico on a collision course with Florida, Helene is now officially a hurricane packing winds of 70 mph. Forecasters expect Helene will reach Category 3 status with winds as high as 125 mph before it reaches landfall.

"There is still some uncertainty on exactly how strong Helene will get, and upward adjustments to the forecast intensity could be required in subsequent advisories if Helene rapidly intensifies more than forecast," National Hurricane Center forecasters wrote in the latest discussion. "Regardless, Helene is forecast to be a large major hurricane when it reaches the Big Bend coast of Florida. As a result, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend well away from the center and outside the forecast cone, particularly on the east side."

As the storm ticked east, the hurricane warning was also extended the Jackson and Calhoun counties.

See the storm's latest track and models and overlay it with your address using our Storm Tracker and Model Mixer. Bookmark it at https://data.tallahassee.com/storm/

Leon, Tallahassee officials brief community ahead of Hurricane Helene's 'unprecedented damage'

The City of Tallahassee and Leon County are holding a hurricane preparedness update.

Mayor John Dailey warned residents that if the forecast track holds the community will see "unprecedented damage like nothing we have ever experienced before as a community."

Officials also declared a mandatory evacuation for those living in mobile and manufactured homes.

Time running out for 'bacon-saving east shift' that would spare Tallahassee, neighbors brunt of Helene

In his morning briefing, Dr. Ryan Truchelut, of Tallahassee-based WeatherTiger, warned that the noose is closing around Florida’s capital city and its coastal neighbors. 

Strengthening Tropical Storm Helene will avoid all land interaction and shoot through the Yucatan Channel into the Gulf of Mexico, giving it a glide path for rapid intensification on its way to Florida as a Category 3 storm, or even higher.

When the storm eventually makes landfall between Apalachicola and Cedar Key, it could be more devastating than Hurricane Michael for many communities.

“Life-threatening storm surge of 10-15’+ in Apalachee Bay will submerge much of the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle’s low-lying coastal counties, where mandatory evacuations are in effect,” wrote Truchelut, who produces written and interactive video forecasts for the USA TODAY NETWORK – Florida. “This would by far be the worst surge in recorded history in Apalachee Bay, exceeding Michael’s surge and that of the much smaller Idalia in Apalachee Bay and the Nature Coast.”

He also noted that as Helene’s track holds steady “time is running out of time for the kind of bacon-saving east shift that kept the worst of Idalia and Debby to our southeast.”

“The difference between damaging and potentially catastrophic winds for your local impact is whether or not the core/eyewall of Helene moves over you, which in this case may be 60 miles wide or so” he wrote. “It’s too early to know exactly who will get the core, but if you do, expect damaging inland wind gusts of 80-100+ mph. For Tallahassee, that would cause damage exceeding Hermine or Michael.”

He noted that today is the last day to conclude your preparations.

“IF YOU HAVE AN EVACUATION ORDER, GO TODAY. Weather conditions will go downhill tomorrow.”

Commissioner Rick Minor: Tallahassee could see six hours of 74-110 mph winds

Leon County Commissioner Rick Minor pleaded with residents to take seriously Hurricane Helene, which is on track to make landfall south of Tallahassee as a Category 3 storm with winds as high as 115 mph.

In an email to constituents on Tuesday night, Minor said he was briefed by Leon County Emergency Management officials, who said that if the current track holds, Leon County will suffer a direct hit.

"On Thursday we'll face about six hours of sustained winds of 74-110 mph, leading to thousands of downed trees, more than a hundred blocked roads, hundreds of damaged structures, and many, many days of extended power outages," he said. "But we mustn't panic — fortunately, we all have enough time to carefully plan and prepare.

Minor urged people to go to www.LeonReady.com, review the checklists and other info and start your preparations now.

""Listen to the updated storm forecasts, carefully consider the expert advice that'll be provided," Minor said, "and finalize the plan for yourself, your family, and your pets: do you evacuate, go to a shelter, or wait out the storm at home?"

Minor said the forecast could change, but he warned residents not to bank on it.

"But if the current projections turn out to be true, it's going to be a bad one," he wrote. "Leon County residents can't afford to discount the severity of this storm."

'Nightmare' scenario unfolding for Big Bend, Tallahassee

As Tallahasseeans awoke Wednesday morning, there was no big shift in the track of what is expected to become Hurricane Helene later today. There was no wind shear that diminished what is shaping up to be an unprecedented threat to Tallahassee.

Florida's capital city and its Big Bend coastal neighbors remain in the bullseye. For those living in Wakulla, Franklin and Taylor counties, the National Weather Service forecasters offered a grim wakeup call hours after emergency managers ordered all county residents to evacuate.

"This forecast, if realized, is a nightmare surge scenario for Apalachee Bay," forecasters wrote in the latest cyclone statement for the region. "Please, please, please take any evacuation orders seriously."

While exact impacts will be heavily dependent on the eventual track, expect catastrophic wind damage near the eventual point and inland along the track. Even though the hurricane is forecast to be moving quickly, very high rainfall rates and already saturated soils in some places will still combine for a serious flood risk across the region. Tornadoes also are possible.

According to the National Weather Service in Tallahassee, Helene could render some areas "uninhabitable for weeks or months." Widespread power and communications outages also are expected for prolonged periods.

The NWS said potential impacts include structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof and wall failures; complete destruction of mobile homes; damage greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles; numerous large trees snapped or uprooted; fences and roadway signs blown over; many roads impassable from large debris and more within urban or heavily wooded places; many bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable.

Storm surge flooding, which could be as high as 15 feet in some places along Apalachee Bay, will be "greatly accentuated" by powerful battering waves. Other impacts from the surge include structural damage to buildings, with many washing away; damage greatly compounded from considerable floating debris; near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or severely flooded; flood control systems and barriers may become stressed; extreme beach erosion; new shoreline cuts possible; massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks and piers; numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted onshore and stranded.

Contact Jeff Burlew at jburlew@tallahassee.com or follow @JeffBurlew on Twitter.