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Republicans were dealt three blows in key election predictions Wednesday, including a potentially tie-breaking Electoral College vote in Nebraska.
Sabato's Crystal Ball now predicts Nebraska's Second Congressional District would likely vote Democratic, seeming more positive for the party than it's old rating of "leans Democratic."
With the state splitting its Electoral College (EC) votes, the seat could make the difference between an election win for former President Donald Trump, a tie, or a win for Vice President Kamala Harris.
The previously safe Nebraska Senate seat of Republican Deb Fisher was downgraded to "likely Republican," despite her 10-year term, while in North Carolina, the governor's race moved to "likely Democratic" from only leaning blue previously.
What changed in Nebraska?
The shifts come after a Republican plan to make Nebraska a winner-takes-all system for EC votes was blocked by a state GOP legislator. Nebraska, along with Maine, splits its EC votes, so that the statewide winner earns two votes, and each candidate gets one per Congressional district they carry.
If the change had been successful, it would almost guarantee Trump an extra vote that could tip the election result in November. For Harris, a win in Nebraska could also seal the Presidency, if she can win the other battleground states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Sabato's Crystal Ball said that NE-2 had become more Democratic since 2020, when it backed President Joe Biden, and therefore it was comfortable increasing its rating for that district.
RNC spokesperson Liz Huston said voters in Nebraska would not be fooled by the Harris-Walz campaign.
"While Harris and Walz pretend to support Americans in the Heartland, when the cameras are off, Walz believes that rural America is 'mostly cows and rocks'," Huston said. "Nebraska households cannot afford four more years of the Harris-Biden agenda which has burdened Nebraskan families with higher prices, higher taxes, and lower wages.
"In November, Nebraska voters will send a resounding message when they elect President Donald J. Trump to Make America Great Again."
Newsweek also reached out to the Harris-Walz campaign via email for comment Thursday morning.
North Carolina gubernatorial race shifts
In North Carolina's governor race, the analysts said the story surrounding GOP candidate Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson's alleged racist and sexist posts online had shifted support away from the Republican Party, at least in this race.
Matt Mercer, communications director at the North Carolina GOP, told Newsweek Thursday that the gubernatorial race would not necessarily have an impact on Trump's chances in the battleground state.
"Public polls have turned to President Donald Trump in the past couple weeks especially," Mercer said, adding that Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020. "The North Carolina electorate is highly informed, and they don't necessarily equate their down ballot votes to the president."
Mercer did say that the campaign would adjust its tactics when working within tight margins. Other recent polling has shown Harris inching ahead in the state, but by just 1 point.
Sabato said it was not willing to state the gubernatorial race was a certainty for Democrats, because of such tight polling numbers and the state's history of splitting its vote. The past seven of eight governor races have been won by Democrats, but then has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once in that time.
The shifts in these three votes continue to show the tight nature of the campaign for both parties, with other polling showing that Harris and Trump will have to fight hard for the individual votes that will push them over the 270 Electoral College line to win in November.
Update 09/26/24 3:42 p.m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Matt Mercer.
About the writer
Dan Gooding is a Newsweek reporter based in New York City. His focus is reporting on immigration and border security. ... Read more