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NEW YORK — When a heat wave strikes, many people probably think it’s just another sign of global warming. However, a concerning new study has discovered a collection of global “hotspots,” where temperatures are becoming so extreme without warning that climate change can’t explain it.
In these regions, summer heat doesn’t just creep up, it suddenly explodes into uncharted territory. Researchers from the Columbia Climate School add that these heat waves are so extreme, they’re breaking all prediction climate models that have been made.
We’re talking about temperature records shattered by mind-boggling margins, like the 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest that broke daily records by a staggering 54 degrees Fahrenheit.
“These regions become temporary hothouses,” says lead researcher Kai Kornhuber in a media release.
The study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed 65 years of heat wave data and found something truly unsettling. While global temperatures are rising, some areas are experiencing heat waves that are completely off the charts.
The most dramatic examples read like a global heat disaster tour. Central China, Japan, the Arabian Peninsula, eastern Australia, and northwestern Europe have been hit hardest. In Europe alone, heat waves contributed to nearly 60,000 deaths in 2022 and 47,000 in 2023.
What makes these heat waves so unusual is their unpredictability. One potential explanation involves the jet stream – that fast-moving river of air circling the Northern Hemisphere. As the Arctic warms faster than other regions, the jet stream becomes unstable, potentially creating “Rossby waves” that trap hot air in unexpected places for days or even weeks.
Here’s the truly frightening part: we’re not prepared for these extreme events. Many regions, like the Pacific Northwest and Europe, traditionally didn’t need air conditioning. Suddenly, they’re facing temperatures that can kill.
“We’re not built for them, and we might not be able to adapt fast enough,” Kornhuber warns.
Interestingly, not everywhere is experiencing these extreme heat spikes. Large areas like the north-central United States, south-central Canada, and parts of Siberia are seeing temperature increases that more closely match predictions.
As 2024 is on track to be another record-breaking year – following 2023, the hottest year on record – this research serves as a stark reminder. Our climate is changing in ways we don’t fully understand, and the consequences are potentially devastating.
The message is clear: these aren’t just hot summers. They’re a glimpse into a rapidly transforming world, where our existing models and preparations may no longer be enough.
Paper Summary
Methodology
This study examined how the most extreme heat events have changed globally over the past 65 years by analyzing daily maximum temperatures from 1958 to 2022. The researchers compared the highest temperatures of the year (99th percentile) to more typical high summer temperatures (87.5th percentile).
This approach allowed them to study whether extreme heat events are becoming more frequent and intense compared to regular seasonal temperature changes. They used advanced climate model simulations from the HighResMIP project and reanalysis data like ERA5 for observational comparisons. A bootstrap method was applied to calculate statistical trends and assess uncertainty.
Key Results
The study found that in many regions, extreme heat events are warming much faster than more moderate temperatures. Key areas such as Western Europe, China, and the Arctic are experiencing significant “tail-widening,” meaning the hottest days are getting disproportionately hotter. Surprisingly, the climate models significantly underestimated these trends, especially for the most extreme cases. On a global scale, models failed to capture the intensity of these increases, highlighting a need for improvement in simulating extreme events.
Study Limitations
One limitation of the study is that the climate models often struggle to simulate complex interactions between atmospheric, oceanic, and land systems that drive extreme heat events. For example, they underestimate the impact of factors like soil moisture and atmospheric circulation patterns. Differences in data sources, such as the resolution of observational datasets, also contribute to uncertainty in the results. Additionally, while the models capture moderate trends well, they miss the extreme cases that are crucial for predicting future risks.
Discussion & Takeaways
This research emphasizes that climate models need to be improved to better simulate the processes behind extreme heat events. Policymakers should account for the possibility that future heatwaves may be more severe than what current models predict. Rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are critical to mitigate these risks. The findings also suggest that local factors, such as land-use changes and regional climate dynamics, may need to be studied in greater detail to understand the full implications of climate change on extreme weather.
Funding & Disclosures
The study was supported by various organizations, including the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research and NOAA. Other funding came from NASA and the National Science Foundation. The authors declared no competing interests. All datasets and codes used in this research are publicly available for further exploration.
Soooo the Climate Change Models are wrong………..again
Mmmm, no. It’s study finds so if anything is wrong it is study finds.
Look up why CFCs were banned in the 1970s by every country on earth.
Man’s use of chemicals and fossil fuels does have an impact on the earth.
Owl Gore warned us about this
Haarp. Government trying to weed out the herd
Sixty five years of data is not even a thousandth of a blink of an eye in terms of climate observation.
Less than 100 miles below your feet there’s magma, which is very hot. Weather people always look up, never down. Some of that extra heat might be manifesting through the earth’s crust in weak points.
No mention of solar sunspot cycles, solar flares and coronal mass ejections, magnetic field migration, or intentional stratospheric aerosol injection, no, none of that.
https://www.nasa.gov/earth/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere/
Why don’t scientists consider this unprecedented natural event impacting climate? It is NASA after all, not a conspiracy. Ever pour water on the rocks in a sauna? Same concept
Because that wouldn’t fit the narrative.