France on edge of meltdown as Macron's government could collapse in 24h hours
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces two votes of no confidence after employing Article 49.3 of the French constitution to push his controversial Budget through.
The French government could collapse on Wednesday, after Prime Minister Michel Barnier forced through the first part of his budget without a vote in the National Assembly.
Mr Barnier, the EU's former chief Brexit negotiator, had to employ Article 49.3 of the French constitution, to get his controversial plan for spending cuts and tax hikes through on Monday afternoon.
In response to being sidelined by the PM, under the French system lawmakers are able to pursue "censure" - otherwise known as a vote of no confidence - against him.
The 73-year-old now faces two votes of no confidence after both left-wing New Popular Front and hard-right National Rally, the party of Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, called for separate votes.
French President Emmanuel Macron is said to be urgently looking for a new prime minister in case Mr Barnier is ousted, which is likely as votes from the New Popular Front and the National Rally should be enough to get a majority.
The votes will be taking place on Wednesday evening after a debate which is due to start at 3pm in Parliament. The French Constitution states that a vote of no confidence can only happen 48 hours after it is officially called for.
Mr Macron is also facing calls to resign as a recent poll showed well over half of the French people would be in favour of him quitting if Mr Barnier's government falls.
Mr Barnier, a member of the centre-right Republican party, which took a beating during the summer's Assembly elections, was appointed by Mr Macron to get the French economy out of the mire.
Since Covid, the country's deficit to GDP ratio has soared. Under EU rules, the deficit cannot exceed 3 three percent of GDP. However, in 2023, France's ratio spiked to 5.5 percent, and is forecast to be 6.2 percent this year.
Mr Barnier's brief was to rescue the French economy, getting the GDP to deficit ratio back below three percent. To do that, his budget included deep cuts to public spending totalling £33bn (€40bn), and steep tax rises amounting to £16bn (€20bn).
If Mr Barnier succumbs to a vote of no confidence then his budget plans may fall by the wayside too. Although not necessarily. A caretaker could come in as PM and use constitutional powers to pass the Barnier budget - however this is a legal grey area and could result in political deadlock.
The other possibility is that the budget arrangements from this year could be rolled into next year. However, that would mean France's economic woes being dragged out, with dire attendant consequences.
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France may plunge the Eurozone into a 2015 Greece-style crisis. What's more, it will create a political headache for the European Commission, who will be faced with sanctioning its second largest economy.
This period of turmoil has already led to a sharp rise in the cost of government borrowing and a rapid sell-off of French stocks.
Paris is now paying 2.9 percent on its 10-year debt, way more than the 2.05 percent paid by Berlin. France's borrowing costs are now in line with Greece's.
