In February 2019, Bryce Harper signed what was then the largest deal in MLB history — a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. That record lasted mere weeks before Los Angeles Angels superstar Mike Trout inked a 12-year, $426.5 million extension.
Fast forward to today, and those figures seem almost modest by current standards.
Two offseasons ago, Shohei Ohtani reset the market entirely with his 10-year, $700 million agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers, making him the highest-paid athlete ever. The record fell again when Juan Soto secured a $765 million contract with the New York Mets this past winter.
As contract values skyrocket, teams are rushing to lock up young talent early. The Milwaukee Brewers gave then 20-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio an eight-year, $82 million extension last year before he played a single MLB game. The San Diego Padres just secured 21-year-old Jackson Merrill with a nine-year, $135 million deal that could reach $204 million with incentives.
Teams that hesitate face costly consequences. The Toronto Blue Jays just committed 14 years and $500 million to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. after failing to secure him two seasons ago when his price tag hovered around $300 million.
This rapid inflation has one MLB insider eyeing a milestone that once seemed unthinkable: the billion-dollar baseball contract.
MLB insider projects $1 billion contract not out of the question by 2030
Jim Bowden, former general manager for the Cincinnati Reds and Washington Nationals, projects that the $1 billion threshold could be crossed by 2030. In a recent column for The Athletic, Bowden laid out his case.
“With Guerrero receiving $500 million and impending free-agent outfielder Kyle Tucker expected to get north of that in the offseason, imagine what deals could look like for elite talent in 2030? A billion dollars is not out of the realm of possibility,” Bowden wrote. “Therefore, conservatively speaking, this contract could save the Padres hundreds of millions if Merrill lives up to his potential. He belongs in the same conversation with Guerrero and Tucker in terms of overall talent, ability and potential.”
Who might become baseball’s first billion-dollar player? Several candidates stand out. Pittsburgh Pirates ace Paul Skenes won’t hit free agency until after the 2029 season, but his dominant start suggests a massive payday awaits.
Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson, already elite at 23, reaches free agency after 2028 with Scott Boras as his agent — a combination primed for record-setting negotiations.
New York Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez presents another possibility. The 22-year-old phenom, long considered among baseball’s brightest prospects, becomes a free agent after the 2030 season.
With the market’s current trajectory, the question isn’t if a player will cross the billion-dollar threshold, but when — and who will be the first to break this once-unimaginable barrier.
